Turmeric futures have begun to surge once more throughout varied agri-terminal markets within the nation as decrease manufacturing this yr has resulted in demand exceeding provides, merchants and business members mentioned,

“Futures touched ₹20,000 a quintal a couple of periods in the past and have dropped to between ₹18,500 and ₹19,500. There may very well be ₹1,000 motion both up or down,” mentioned Sunil Patil, proprietor, Varadlaxmi Buying and selling in Sangli, Maharashtra.

“There was a pointy rise from ₹16,000 to ₹20,000 in a brief span of time as demand exceeded provides. Nevertheless, folks turned cautious at ₹20,000,” mentioned Ankit Agarwal, Director at Erode-based Amar Agarwal Meals India Ltd. 

“Turmeric costs have turned risky because the crop is low this time and the query is how provides will grow to be in Might,” mentioned RKV Ravishankar, President, Erode Turmeric Retailers Affiliation. 

Present costs

On Tuesday, turmeric (farmer polished) ended at ₹18,982 for June contracts on NCDEX, whereas August futures closed at ₹19,636, a good indication of tight provides forward.

In Nizamabad, turmeric (farmer polished) was quoted at ₹17,593.65, whereas the superior Rajapore selection dominated at ₹18,994.90 at Sangli. 

Based on the primary advance estimate launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, turmeric manufacturing is more likely to be 10.74 lakh tonnes this crop yr to June in opposition to 11.70 lakh tonnes final crop yr.

“We expect the crop is a few 30 per cent decrease than final yr. As well as, farmers are holding again one other 5 per cent for resowing,” mentioned Agarwal. 

Demand could take successful

“Provides have been decrease this yr and in one other 15-20 days the state of affairs can be clear. Elections to the Lok Sabha have additionally led to decrease arrivals in components of Maharashtra,” mentioned Patil. 

“There are numerous figures on the manufacturing being decrease. It’s going to imply that demand can be 25 per cent decrease than regular as a consequence of increased costs,” mentioned Ravishankar.

“The market has turned bullish and 90 per cent of the crop has arrived throughout most components of the nation. We see solely one-way motion,” mentioned Nizamabad-based dealer Amrutlal Kataria.

However Patil and Agarwal mentioned turmeric costs would possibly first stabilise earlier than starting to surge once more. “We see costs rising to ₹22,000 by the tip of Might. At the moment, purchases are on a hand-to-mouth foundation,” mentioned Patil. 

“Consumers have turned cautious and they don’t seem to be constructing inventories. We’ve additionally advised our shoppers to not go lengthy as it isn’t price taking dangers at such excessive costs. Costs might head in direction of ₹22,000 by June,” he mentioned.

La Nina returns

“Nobody is bound the place turmeric is headed. They could high ₹22,000 and even head additional increased,” mentioned Kataria.   

Export demand for turmeric is nice, although excessive costs are enjoying spoilsport, merchants mentioned. Turmeric exports throughout the April-January interval of 2023-24 had been decrease at 1.32 lakh tonnes in opposition to 1.36 lakh tonnes within the yr in the past interval. Nevertheless, by way of worth they had been up at $177.03 million in contrast with $169.81 million. 

With the India Meteorological Division (IMD) predicting the re-emergence of La Nina this yr, rains throughout the south-west monsoon will maintain the important thing to subsequent yr’s crop and value actions.

“If the monsoon arrives on time, costs might drop to ranges of ₹17,000-18,000,” mentioned Patil.

“If the spatial distribution of monsoon rain seems to be good in turmeric-growing areas, then the world beneath turmeric this yr will improve by 1.5 occasions in Telangana, two occasions in Maharashtra and a pair of.5 occasions in Tamil Nadu completely leading to space doubling,” mentioned Agarwal. 

“The realm beneath turmeric will rise this yr if rains grow to be helpful,” mentioned Ravishankar. 

If monsoon seems to be good, a number of the stockists might rush to the market to promote. This might end in costs dropping sharply, mentioned Agarwal. Nevertheless, that is possible solely after July.  

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